3); South Tarawa, Kiribati (DLF 1995); Alofi, Niue (DLF 1995) The

3); South Tarawa, Kiribati (DLF 1995); Alofi, Niue (DLF 1995) The island typology can provide a template (AZD5582 chemical structure checklist) of potential hazards and the nature of potential impacts, but our review has highlighted the critical importance of local place-based

analysis of the coastal biophysical and social-ecological systems. Understanding shoreline stability selleck chemicals on atoll islands and projecting long-term land availability under various climate-change scenarios requires detailed data on coastal morphology, including high-resolution digital elevation models, and on the processes that drive coastal change. In this context, Woodroffe (2008) pointed to a number of specific knowledge requirements. He noted the need to watch for thresholds

that might lead to major transformations in the nature and stability of reef and shore systems. Webb and Kench (2010), reporting an analysis of multi-decadal island shoreline change, concluded that “island nations must Selleck Crenigacestat place a high priority on resolving the precise styles and rates of change that will occur over the next century and reconsider the implications for adaptation”. In another context, evaluating the stability and size of potential tsunami-generating landslide blocks on heavily forested volcanic island slopes in Dominica, Teeuw et al. (2009) identified mapping with suitable tools as a prime requirement. Other critical data needs have also emerged from this study. It is evident that

measurements of vertical crustal motion are a prerequisite for robust projections of future sea levels at any specific island site (Fig. 11). Leukocyte receptor tyrosine kinase Long-term water level records from tide gauges are equally important, even when complemented by satellite altimetry (Davis et al. 2012). Yet the network of GNSS stations on islands worldwide is extremely sparse and the number of co-located GNSS and tide gauges is even smaller. Even where data are available, as at many of the 18 sites used for SLR projections in this study (Fig. 1), continuity is a challenge and very few islands are represented in the active network of the International GNSS Service (http://​www.​igs.​org/​network/​netindex.​html). Conclusions Realistic physical hazard and impact projections are a prerequisite for effective adaptation planning. The hazard mix and severity may vary with island type and regional setting. There is a need for monitoring of evolving physical exposure to provide objective data on island responses and early warning of changing risk. Reef islands may be resilient under rising sea level, at least at rates experienced during the twentieth century, maintaining island area but not necessarily fixed shoreline positions. The latter has implications for land ownership, property boundaries, and shorefront infrastructure. Coastal stability requires maintenance of healthy coastal ecosystems, particularly in tropical regions where organisms produce sand.

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